Journal article
Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications
NJ Briscoe, J Elith, R Salguero-Gómez, JJ Lahoz-Monfort, JS Camac, KM Giljohann, MH Holden, BA Hradsky, MR Kearney, SM McMahon, BL Phillips, TJ Regan, JR Rhodes, PA Vesk, BA Wintle, JDL Yen, G Guillera-Arroita
Ecology Letters | WILEY | Published : 2019
DOI: 10.1111/ele.13348
Abstract
Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with ecological processes captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes such as physiology, dispersal, demography and biotic interactions. These models are believed to offer more robust predictions, particularly when extrapolating to novel conditions. Many process–explicit approaches are now available, but it is not clear how we can best draw on this expanded modelling toolbox to address ecological problems..
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Grants
Awarded by Natural Environment Research Council
Funding Acknowledgements
This study was initiated at a workshop funded by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CE11001000104) and the BES Quantitative Ecology Special Interest Group. NJB was supported by ARC Discovery project (DP180101852); RSG by a NERC IRF (R/142195-11-1); GGA by ARC Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (DE160100904); BAW and BAH by the National Environmental Science Program Threatened Species Recovery Hub. We thank Nick Golding, Jessica Metcalf and Michael McCarthy for early discussions on this topic, David Wilkinson for assistance reviewing papers, Stuart Elith for vastly improving Figure 1, and Damien Fordham and two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and useful suggestions.